Apr 05
As I noted back in January, the deficit and the debt are real issues, but the “debt ceiling” debate is political posturing. (If you follow the links back a few years, this was originally making fun of Democrats).
I still believe a shutdown will be averted, but if not, here is an article from Michael Shear at the NY Times on the possible consequences: White House Says Shutdown Would Harm the Economy (pay wall)
Administration officials said that nearly 800,000 federal workers would probably be told to stop working if a deal was not reached in the next two days. Small business loans would stop. Tax returns filed on paper would not be processed. Government Web sites would go dark. And federal loan guarantees for new mortgages would become unavailable.
Read more…
Tags: Political, Political Grandstanding
Apr 04
Studies have revealed that sickness absence, from short-term and longer-term sickness, is one of the major reasons for employee absences. Stress is also emerging as a major factor with its impact higher compared to earlier periods.
Any absence management program would hence require special focus on sickness absence.
Different Kinds of Sickness Reported for Sickness Absence
Minor illness such as colds, flu, stomach upset and headaches are the most frequently reported kinds of sickness, among both manual and non-manual employees. Employees might just call in sick reporting such problems.
Manual workers engaged in physically demanding work tend to suffer more from physical ailments like back pain and musculo-skeletal injuries. For non-manual employees stress is a major problem, with one study reporting it as the second most frequent type of sickness, after minor illnesses.
Recurring medical conditions is another major contributor to sickness absence.
Stress-Related Sickness Absences
Excessive and sustained pressure of work can lead to stress when it goes beyond acceptable levels of pressure.
Read more…
Tags: Absences, Employee Absences, Major Reasons
Apr 03
Note: The Irish bank stress test results will be released at 4:30 PM local time (11:30 AM ET). The Irish Times has a live blog discussing the results.
Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity accelerated rapidly in March, posting a record high for the second straight month. Expectations moderated slightly from last month, but still remained solid. Price indexes for raw materials reached historically high levels, and more firms indicated plans to pass cost increases on to customers.
The month-over-month composite index was 27 in March, up from 19 in February and 7 in January. This reading set a new all time survey high. … The employment index inched higher from 23 to 25, also a new survey record.
This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for January. The regional surveys provide a hint about the ISM manufacturing index, as the following graph shows.
Read more…
Apr 02
QE in Camelot
QUANTITATIVE easing (QE) is an ugly name for a simple idea. Central banks buy long-term government bonds with newly printed money. This raises the bonds’ prices, lowers their yields and provides a helpful boost to growth when central banks’ main tool, the short-term interest rate, is close to zero.
There is plenty of dispute over whether QE works, but not over who should be doing it: the central bank, obviously. Yet is it so clear-cut? A new paper has found that a finance ministry can accomplish the same outcome simply by altering the maturity structure of its debt.
America tried precisely that in 1961. To lower long-term rates the administration of John Kennedy persuaded the Federal Reserve to co-operate with the Treasury in selling (shorter-term) bills and using the proceeds to purchase (longer-term) bonds. By altering the supply of different types of debt, the idea was to “twist” the yield curve.
Read more…
Tags: Easing, Quantitative Easing
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